The Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), a populist centre-right opposition party in Japan, scored electoral success in last year’s lower house election, boosting its seats from 11 to 41. This has been widely interpreted as a sign of public yearning for a reformist alternative to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Ishin now aspires to further broaden its base of support in the upcoming upper house elections, with the ambition to position itself to become Japan’s largest opposition party and lay the groundwork for securing a majority in the legislature.

However, contrary to their lofty ambitions, their support remains sluggish. Although Ishin has seen a slight increase in his approval rating after almost quadrupling the number of seats in the lower house, support for the party remains considerably low, stuck at less than 5%. By comparison, the LDP’s rating has recently fluctuated from the low range to the upper 40% range, meaning it consistently maintains nearly four times Ishin’s approval rating.

What explains the difficulties of the opposition party to break through?

First, the strong image attached to Ishin as a representative of a regional interest, especially Osaka, Japan’s third largest city, makes it difficult for them to become a true national party. Ishin was the offspring of reformist LDP politicians, including current Osaka Mayor Matsui Ichiro, who established a regional political party to achieve political goals. Allied with television celebrity Hashimoto Toru, former governor of Osaka and mayor of Osaka city, famous for his populist style of government and reformist policies, Osaka Ishin no Kai swept Osaka’s politics. Emboldened by its success, the party broadened its vision to seek national prominence, establishing a national party, which is now the Nippon Ishin no Kai. The fact that Ishin has completely eliminated LDP lawmakers from Osaka’s constituencies indicates how popular they are in Osaka and how deeply rooted the party is in Osaka culture.

Ironically, however, his dominance in Osaka politics further cemented Ishin’s image as representing a regional interest. Reports indicate that one of the challenges for Ishin is extending their support outside of Osaka, which they lack the manpower and organizational capacity to do.

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Second, the nature of Ishin’s approval might explain the party’s difficulty in sustaining a rise in its approval ratings. Research by Professor Zenkyo Masahiro of Kwansei Gakuin University found that Ishin had few enthusiastic supporters; on the contrary, the vast majority of Ishin’s followers had a weak connection to the party. The LDP and its ruling partner, the Komeito, have a clear base of support – cultural conservatives for the LDP and the Soka Gakkai, a Buddhist religious organization, for the Komeito. In contrast, the mount for Ishin is fluid and easily convertible depending on where the wind is blowing. These findings imply that unless Ishin ultimately manages to position itself as the popular “alternative” to the Constitutional Democratic Party, the current largest opposition party, its influence could easily fade nationally, forcing the set out to rebuild from nothing.

Third, Ishin has so far failed to draw support from the conservative base of the LDP, in which they are apparently straining, given their political rhetoric. After the inauguration of current Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, from Ishin’s messages, it seemed obvious that they were trying to win over LDP voters frustrated with Kishida’s policies. For example, in pointing out Kishida’s lack of appetite for “Kaikaku” (reform), Ishin policymakers appealed to populist-leaning conservatives, favoring attacks on the establishment represented by the leadership of the party and the mainstream media. Moreover, Ishin lobbied for the constitutional review and introduced the controversial nuclear sharing policy into his platform, outflanking the LDP to the right on security issues. These are also indicators that Ishin is reaching out to conservative LDP voters who are populist and favor a tough defensive posture.

However, at this moment, Ishin’s attempt is in vain. As mentioned earlier, Ishin’s support remained low. Adding to the party’s woes, Ishin’s co-founder Hashimoto is receiving immense criticism from conservative pundits and right-wing magazines for his comments on the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as accusations of collusion with Chinese companies, for which there is no hard evidence. As long as Hashimoto, the de facto face of Ishin, continues to be attacked by the conservative apparatus, it will be difficult for the party to win over disillusioned LDP voters influenced by right-wing media.

In sum, serious obstacles stand in the way of the Nippon Ishin no Kai, despite its remarkable success during the last election cycle. Although they are poised to acquire more seats in next month’s upper house election, they risk hitting their political ceiling without ever really posing a challenge to the LDP.